Who will win this year's Grand National based on previous trends? (2024)

Jump racing's most famous contest, the Randox Grand National (4.00), takes place at Aintree on Saturday. We've taken a look at previous runnings and picked out the key factors to help you find the winner.

Age

While plenty of National winners were aged in double digits, there has been a strong swing towards younger horses since Pineau De Re won as an 11-year-old ten years ago. With Noble Yeats the first seven-year-old to triumph since 1940, eight and nine are the magic numbers.

Weight

With 11st 5lb to carry as things stand, Corach Rambler has another key trend to bust. Trusting any horse over the 11st barrier was deemed madness not all that long ago and, while this trend is under some threat, you are still better off concentrating on horses south of that threshold.

Those with plenty of weight still generally struggle. From 2013, 94 horses have been above this threshold and just 35 got around. Only ten managed to make the frame, with two successful.

And this cast-iron pattern is going nowhere when last year 11 of the first 13 to finish carried 11st or less. Never let anyone convince you that weight no longer matters.

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First-time winners

Corach Rambler was a decisive winner from Vanillier 12 months ago with Noble Yeats finishing fourth. While it's little wonder that all three have long featured prominently in the ante-post market for this season’s race, the trends don't bode well.

Tiger Roll became the first dual winner since Red Rum and it's asking a lot for lightning to strike twice any time soon. Between their respective triumphs in 1974 and 2019, no fewer than 24 horses failed to defend their crown. It is hugely significant that 22 of the last 28 National winners were making their debuts in the race.

Cheltenham Festival form

Another glaring concern for Corach Rambler is that he heads to Aintree on the back of a hard race in finishing third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. He would be only the sixth winner to emerge from the Gold Cup in 45 years and the last was Many Clouds, who finished sixth at Cheltenham.

This year's market leader was seriously involved in the business end and finished his race in slow motion. However, it is true that eight of the last 16 winners had competed at Prestbury Park the time before, including six of the last nine.

Bindaree (seventh), Noble Yeats (ninth) and Corach Rambler (first) ran in the staying chase on day one in which Meetingofthewaters ran third last month.

Experience

Experience of the famous fences is not frowned upon, yet it brings no great advantage. Rarely do horses win after contesting the race before, while the Topham and the Becher Chase aren't great guides.

The Topham has delivered only three winners since 2002, while only Amberleigh House and Silver Birch won the Becher. However, contenders should have proven themselves in high-class staying handicaps, therefore bringing other Nationals into the equation.

The Welsh version is traditionally strong having produced nine winners from Corbiere to Mon Mome, and while this year's timing was not ideal, the Irish is a growing influence. It never paid to take stamina on trust but this is one traditionally strong trend that could be on the move.

There have been only three winners without successful form at 3m since Gay Trip in 1970, yet that trio have come in the last seven renewals courtesy of Rule The World, Minella Times and Noble Yeats. The new-look Aintree is a greater test of speed.

Hurdling form

Competing over hurdles has become a popular tactic to protect handicap marks and five of the last ten Irish-trained winners had at least one of their previous two starts over timber, as did Don't Push It and Ballabriggs. Those to fall into this category this year include Noble Yeats, Latenightpass, Panda Boy and Kitty's Light.

Grand National verdict

Modern-day Nationals are a different animal to the ones of old but some cast-iron trends will stand the test of time.

Forget Corach Rambler and the other placed horses from last year and seek a relatively young, classy newcomer with a weight beneath 11st.

Panda Boy's latest run over hurdles in February is a tell-tale sign that this has been a long-term plan.

Kitty's Light could be the best of the British, while Mr Incredible also makes the shortlist after his second in the Midlands National. He was going well last year when his saddle slipped at the second Canal Turn.

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